Why Credit Unions Should Consider Scenario Planning
Stacy Augustine- Apr 18
- 2 min read
One of the lessons that this year’s political and economic uncertainties is teaching us is that credit union leaders must ask themselves whether they’re prepared for multiple possible futures—or just hoping for the best.
Scenario planning is critical to provide foresight into various future outlooks across multiple scenarios. Credit unions can use this strategic tool to imagine a range of plausible futures and explore how they might respond. Scenario planning adds a level of resilience to supplement your credit union’s strategic planning. And with a future of potential tariffs and taxation, that kind of resilience is not optional.
What Credit Union Scenario Planning Looks Like
What trends or events will likely affect your credit union and have an unpredictable outcome? Things like inflation, interest rates, the impact of tariffs, taxation threats and more would qualify.
Start small with scenario planning: Choose two uncertainties and build three distinct futures or create a matrix with four quadrants. Give each a name. Explore them as “stories.” Then, work through the implications of each. These conversations are not about predicting the future. They’re about being ready for it.
Scenario planning doesn’t tell you which of these outcomes will happen or when they will happen. Instead, it helps you answer the question: How would our credit union respond if this did happen?
Scenario planning works beautifully as a standalone exercise, especially during times of external disruption. It becomes even more valuable when integrated into annual strategic planning sessions.
Sample Scenarios to Explore
These are just a few scenarios worth examining:
Rate and inflation volatility
Operational risk with grant awards
Auto tariffs changing borrowing habits
Climate and insurance pressure
Generational shifts via fintechs
Each of these issues could merit a separate scenario. Your leadership team can explore what would change, what would remain critical and where your blind spots lie.
5 Questions to Start Your Next Scenario Planning Session
What external factors are keeping your leadership team up at night?
Which factors are highly uncertain—but would significantly impact your credit union?
If one of those scenarios became reality tomorrow, in what areas would you feel unprepared?
What no-regrets moves could you make today to be ready for multiple futures?
Who else needs to be part of the conversation—from operations to the boardroom?
Scenario planning doesn’t require you to predict the future. It helps ensure your credit union is ready to thrive in it.
